American Research Group, Inc.


2010 Pollsters and Aggregators Ratings Summary

The following table lists the average accuracy of pollsters and polling aggregators based on 2010 Primary, Senate, Governor, and House races using the measure of polling accuracy proposed by Martin, Traugott, and Kennedy. A minimum of nine polls/races were required to be included in the table.  

YouGov/Polimetrix 0.072
SurveyUSA 0.077 0.084 0.098 0.100
Public Policy Polling 0.101
Fox News 0.105
Quinnipiac 0.107
CNN/Time 0.120
The Hill 0.123
Rasmussen 0.143

The only difference at the 95% confidence interval is between the average accuracy for YouGov/Polimetrix and The Hill.

The trend estimates of and the prediction models of did not out-perform the simple averages used by and all three polling aggregators did not out-perform pollsters conducting nine or more polls.

YouGov/Polimetrix did not just lead in average polling accuracy. Its prediction of Republican gains in the House out-performed the House prediction model.

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