September 11, 2014
2014 NFL Prediction Accuracy
and Nate Silver's Elo
are predicting the outcomes of NFL games each week during the
We use Brier
scores to determine the accuracy of the probabilistic
predictions from both models.
In week 1, the
Elo model had a Brier score of 0.212, which is about 18% better
than assigning each team a
50% win probability.
The Cortana model had a Brier score of
0.222, which is about 13% better
than assigning each team a 50% win probability.
Details are here.
September 8, 2014
South Carolina Gubernatorial Election
Nikki Haley leads Vincent Sheheen 43% to 33%, with 18% for Tom Ervin in a survey of likely voters in South Carolina.
Details of the survey, conducted September 2-4, 2014, can be found here.
August 21, 2014
Obama Job Approvals and the National Economy
|Obama Job Approval Ratings
A total of 43% of Americans say they approve of the way Barack
Obama is handling
job as president and 52% say they disapprove of the way Obama is handling his job.
In July, 42% of Americans approved
of the job Obama was doing and 56% disapproved.
When it comes to Obama's handling
of the economy, 37% of Americans approve and 59% disapprove.
In July, 40% approved and 58% disapproved.
Among Americans registered to
43% approve of the way Obama is handling his job
as president and 53% disapprove. On Obama's handling of the economy, 38% of registered
approve and 58% disapprove.
Details from the nationwide survey conducted August
17-20 are available at The National
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