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September 11, 2014

2014 NFL Prediction Accuracy

 

Microsoft's Cortana and Nate Silver's Elo are predicting the outcomes of NFL games each week during the 2014 season.

We use Brier scores to determine the accuracy of the probabilistic predictions from both models.

In week 1, the Elo model had a Brier score of 0.212, which is about 18% better than assigning each team a 50% win probability.

The Cortana model had a Brier score of 0.222, which is about 13% better than assigning each team a 50% win probability.

Details are here.

 


 

September 8, 2014

South Carolina Gubernatorial Election

Nikki Haley leads Vincent Sheheen 43% to 33%, with 18% for Tom Ervin in a survey of likely voters in South Carolina.

Details of the survey, conducted September 2-4, 2014, can be found here.

 


 

August 21, 2014

Obama Job Approvals and the National Economy

 

Obama Job Approval Ratings
8/20/14 Approve Disapprove Undecided
Overall 43% 52% 5%
Economy 37% 59% 4%

 

A total of 43% of Americans say they approve of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president and 52% say they disapprove of the way Obama is handling his job. In July, 42% of Americans approved of the job Obama was doing and 56% disapproved.

When it comes to Obama's handling of the economy, 37% of Americans approve and 59% disapprove. In July, 40% approved and 58% disapproved.

Among Americans registered to vote, 43% approve of the way Obama is handling his job as president and 53% disapprove. On Obama's handling of the economy, 38% of registered voters approve and 58% disapprove.

Details from the nationwide survey conducted August 17-20 are available at The National Economy.

 


 

 

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