May 16, 2012
Pollster Ratings
Nebraska Republican US Senate Primary The following table lists the accuracy of pollsters in the May 15, 2012 Nebraska Republican
US Senate primary
using the measure of polling accuracy proposed by Martin, Traugott, and Kennedy. An accuracy measure of 0.00 indicates that the odds ratio of the survey results matches
the odds ratio of the actual results (the closer to 0.00, the better).
| 2012 NE Republican US Senate Primary |
|
Fischer |
Bruning |
Odds
Ratio |
Accuracy |
|
| We Ask America |
39% |
34% |
1.00 |
0.00 |
| Wenzel Strategies |
35% |
38% |
0.80 |
-0.22 |
|
| Actual |
41.1% |
35.9% |
|
|
The accuracy measures do not differ at the 95% confidence intervals. The Wenzel Strategies poll missed the order
of finish. Both polls were conducted on May 14, 2012.
May 10, 2012 Pollster Ratings
Indiana Republican US Senate Primary
The following table lists the accuracy of pollsters
in the May 8, 2012 Indiana Republican
US Senate primary
using the measure of polling accuracy proposed by Martin, Traugott, and Kennedy. An accuracy measure of 0.00 indicates that the odds ratio of the survey results matches
the odds ratio of the actual results (the closer to 0.00, the better).
| 2012 IN Republican US Senate Primary |
|
Mourdock |
Lugar |
Odds
Ratio |
Accuracy |
|
Bellwether/
Garin-Hart-Yang |
48% |
38% |
0.81 |
-0.21* |
| Wenzel Strategies |
44% |
39% |
0.72 |
-0.33* |
| Magellan Strategies |
42% |
44% |
0.61 |
-0.49* |
|
| Actual |
61.0% |
39.0% |
|
|
The accuracy measures do not differ at the 95% confidence intervals. *The accuracy measures for all 3 polls fall
outside the 95% confidence interval. The Magellan Strategies poll missed the order
of finish.
North Carolina Constitutional Amendment
The following table
lists the
accuracy of pollsters in the May 8, 2012 election
for
the North
Carolina Constitutional Amendment on marriage using the
measure
of polling accuracy
proposed
by Martin, Traugott, and Kennedy.
| NC Constitutional Amendment
|
|
For |
Against |
Odds
Ratio |
Accuracy |
|
| PPP |
55% |
39% |
0.09 |
-0.10 |
|
| Actual |
61% |
39% |
|
|
The accuracy measure
for the Public Policy Polling survey falls within the 95% confidence
interval.
Wisconsin Democratic Gubernatorial Recall Primary
The following table lists the accuracy of pollsters
in the May 8, 2012 Wisconsin Democratic
gubernatorial recall primary using
the measure of polling accuracy proposed by Martin, Traugott, and Kennedy.
| 2012 WS Dem Gov Recall Primary |
|
Barrett |
Falk |
Odds
Ratio |
Accuracy |
|
| Marquette |
38% |
21% |
1.06 |
0.06 |
|
| Actual |
58.2% |
34.2% |
|
|
The accuracy measure
for the Marquette Law School survey falls within the 95% confidence
interval.
President of France
The following table
lists the
accuracy of pollsters in the May 6, 2102 election for president
of France
using the measure
of polling accuracy
proposed
by Martin, Traugott, and Kennedy.
| 2012 President of France |
|
Hollande |
Sarkozy |
Odds
Ratio |
Accuracy |
|
| Ifop |
52% |
48% |
1.02 |
0.02 |
| BVA |
52.5% |
47.5% |
1.04 |
0.04 |
| OpinionWay |
52.5% |
47.5% |
1.04 |
0.04 |
| Ipsos |
52.5% |
47.5% |
1.04 |
0.04 |
| LH2 |
53% |
47% |
1.06 |
0.06 |
| Harris Interactive |
53% |
47% |
1.06 |
0.06 |
| CSA |
53% |
47% |
1.06 |
0.06 |
| TNS-sofres |
53.5% |
46.5% |
1.08 |
0.08 |
|
| Actual |
51.6% |
48.4% |
|
|
There are no differences in the accuracy
measures for all of the polls at the 95% confidence interval. The average absolute accuracy of the 8 pre-election
polls in France is 0.05. In the 2008 US presidential election, the average absolute accuracy
of 20 pre-election polls was 0.03.
April 23, 2012 Obama Job Approvals and the National Economy
| Obama Job Approval Ratings |
| 4/20/12 |
Approve |
Disapprove |
Undecided |
|
| Overall |
49% |
46% |
5% |
| Economy |
47% |
49% |
4% |
A total of 49% of Americans say they approve of the way Barack Obama is handling
his
job as president and 46% say they disapprove of the way Obama is handling his job according
to the latest survey from the American Research Group. In March, 48% of Americans approved
of the job Obama was doing and 46% disapproved. When it comes to Obama's handling
of the economy, 47% of Americans approve and 49% disapprove.
In March, 44% approved and 50% disapproved. Among Americans registered to vote,
48% approve of the way Obama is handling his job
as president and 47% disapprove. On Obama's handling of the economy, 47% of registered
voters
approve and 50% disapprove. Details from the nationwide survey conducted April
17-20 are available at The National
Economy.
April 4, 2012 2012 Republican Primary Pollster Ratings
The following table indicates the average absolute accuracy for Republican presidential primary and caucus polls in at least four states through April 3, 2012 using the measure of polling accuracy proposed by Martin, Traugott, and Kennedy.
The number of states/polls follows the pollster in parentheses. The closer the accuracy measure is to 0.00, the better.
2012 Republican
Primary/Caucus Polls |
Average
Accuracy |
|
| We Ask America (9) |
0.16 |
| ARG (14) |
0.19 |
| PPP (20) |
0.19 |
| Rasmussen (16) |
0.19 |
| Suffolk (4) |
0.21 |
|
| Average of 129 polls |
0.23 |
|
| Insider Advantage (4) |
0.24 |
| NBC/Marist (9) |
0.26 |
| YouGov (6) |
0.30 |
| CNN (6) |
0.32 |
The average absolute accuracy for 129 Republican primary and caucus polls conducted through April 3 is 0.23.
Details for the April 3 primaries can be found at: Maryland and Wisconsin.
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The margins of error reported for most polls underestimate the actual margins of error for ballot estimates from the same samples. Use the Ballot Lead Calculator to determine if the lead for any survey is statistically significant.
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