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January 17, 2017

2016 NFL Prediction Accuracy

 

Microsoft's Cortana and Nate Silver's fivethirtyeight.com Elo are again predicting the outcomes of NFL games each week during the 2016 season. (See the accuracy results for the two models for the 2015 NFL season here.)

The tables below use Brier scores to determine the accuracy of the probabilistic predictions from both models.

Brier scores range from 0 to 1, with 0 meaning the probabilities in the models perfectly match the outcomes of the games and 1 meaning no matches were made (so the closer to 0.000, the better calibration of the model).

If a 50% (0.500) probability were assigned to each team for each game, the Brier score would be 0.250.

Through the Divisional Round, the Elo model has a Brier score of 0.220 and the Cortana model has a Brier score of 0.219.

 

Brier Scores
2016 NFL Season Summary 538 Elo Cortana
Week 1 0.210 0.230
Week 2 0.229 0.247
Week 3 0.213 0.247
Week 4 0.264 0.271
Week 5 0.260 0.235
Week 6 0.242 0.219
Week 7 0.228 0.239
Week 8 0.238 0.239
Week 9 0.233 0.216
Week 10 0.233 0.252
Week 11 0.175 0.163
Week 12 0.222 0.187
Week 13 0.177 0.217
Week 14 0.203 0.173
Week 15 0.215 0.195
Week 16 0.248 0.239
Week 17 0.174 0.187
Wild Card Weekend 0.141 0.137
Divisional Round0.2250.190
Season totals 0.220 0.219

 

The 95% confidence intervals for the season totals for both models exclude 0.250, making both models slightly better than assigning each team a 50% win probability.

Both models were invalidated in week 4 of the season.

The average win probabilities among winning teams are 56% for the Elo model and 56% for the Cortana model.

Details for each game are here.

 


 

December 29, 2016

Hassan and Obama Job Approvals in New Hampshire

 

Hassan Job Approval Ratings
12/22/2016 Approve Disapprove Undecided
Overall 50% 39% 11%
Economy 51% 39% 10%

 

Obama Job Approval Ratings in NH
12/22/2016 Approve Disapprove Undecided
Overall 52% 43% 5%
Economy 50% 46% 4%

 

Results from the December 2016 Quarterly New Hampshire Poll are now available. NH residents rate NH business conditions, their personal finances, Maggie Hassan, and Barack Obama.

Also, New Hampshire residents grade Maggie Hassan's four years as governor.

 


 

December 21, 2016

2016 US Presidential Election Pollster Ratings

 

The following table lists the accuracy of pollsters in the November 8, 2016 US Presidential election using the measure of polling accuracy proposed by Martin, Traugott, and Kennedy.

An accuracy measure of 0.00 indicates that the odds ratio of the survey results matches the odds ratio of the actual results (the closer to 0.00, the better).

 

2016 Presidential Election - National Popular Vote
Clinton Trump Odds
Ratio
Accuracy
McClatchy/Marist 46% 44% 1.00 0.00 
Politico/Morning Consult 51% 48% 1.02 0.02 
ABC/Post 49% 46% 1.02 0.02 
UPI/CVOTER 49% 46% 1.02 0.02 
IBD/TIPP 43% 42% 0.98 -0.02 
Bloomberg/Selzer 46% 43% 1.02 0.02 
YouGov 49% 45% 1.04 0.04 
Fox 48% 44% 1.04 0.04 
CBS/Times 47% 43% 1.05 0.04 
Gravis/OANN 50% 50% 0.96 -0.04 
Ipsos/Reuters 44% 39% 1.08 0.08 
Monmouth 50% 44% 1.09 0.08 
NBC/SurveyMonkey 51% 44% 1.11 0.10*
USC/LA Times 43.6% 46.8% 0.89 -0.12*
Actual 48.2% 46.1%

 

*The accuracy measures for the NBC/SurveyMonkey poll (sample size of 70,194) and the USC/LA Times poll (sample size of 2,972) fall outside the 95% confidence intervals.

The accuracy measures for the other 12 polls fall within their respective 95% confidence intervals.

The absolute average accuracy for all 14 polls in 2016 is 0.046.

The absolute average accuracy for the 12 polls with accuracy measures that fall within the 95% confidence intervals is 0.036.

The absolute average accuracy for all polls in the 2012 presidential election was 0.055. The average absolute accuracy for the 22 polls in 2012 falling within their respective 95% confidence intervals was 0.052.

The absolute average accuracy for all polls in the 2008 presidential election was 0.037. The accuracy measures for all polls in 2008 fell within their respective 95% confidence intervals.

 


 

December 21, 2016

Obama Job Approvals and the National Economy

 

Obama Job Approval Ratings
12/20/16 Approve Disapprove Undecided
Overall 53% 42% 5%
Economy 50% 45% 5%

 

A total of 53% of Americans say they approve of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president and 42% say they disapprove of the way Obama is handling his job. In November, 53% of Americans approved of the job Obama was doing and 42% disapproved.

When it comes to Obama's handling of the economy, 50% of Americans approve and 45% disapprove. In November, 50% approved and 46% disapproved.

Among Americans registered to vote, 53% approve of the way Obama is handling his job as president and 42% disapprove. On Obama's handling of the economy, 50% of registered voters approve and 44% disapprove.

Details from the nationwide survey conducted December 17-20 are available at The National Economy.

 


 

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