American Research Group, Inc.
RSS  
 
The National Economy
 
Electoral Vote Calculator
 
The New Hampshire Poll
 
Effective Advertising
Scintillating Grid
2014 Christmas Spending
 
 
Survey Tools -
Sample Size Calculator
Margin of Error Calculator
Ballot Lead Calculator
 
 
Subscription Information
 
 

 

January 21, 2015

Obama Job Approvals and the National Economy

 

Obama Job Approval Ratings
01/20/15 Approve Disapprove Undecided
Overall 47% 48% 5%
Economy 48% 49% 3%

A total of 47% of Americans say they approve of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president and 48% say they disapprove of the way Obama is handling his job. In December, 47% of Americans approved of the job Obama was doing and 49% disapproved.

When it comes to Obama's handling of the economy, 48% of Americans approve and 49% disapprove. In December, 45% approved and 52% disapproved.

The 48% approval for Obama's handling of the economy is the highest rating since September 2009 when 49% of Americans approved (and 47% disapproved).

Among Americans registered to vote, 48% approve of the way Obama is handling his job as president and 48% disapprove. On Obama's handling of the economy, 49% of registered voters approve and 49% disapprove.

Details from the nationwide survey conducted January 17-20 are available at The National Economy.

 


 

January 19, 2015

2014 NFL Prediction Accuracy

 

Microsoft's Cortana and Nate Silver's fivethirtyeight.com Elo are predicting the outcomes of NFL games each week during the 2014 season.

The tables below use Brier scores to determine the accuracy of the probabilistic predictions from both models.

Brier scores range from 0 to 1, with 0 meaning the probabilities in the models perfectly match the outcomes of the games and 1 meaning no matches were made (so the closer to 0.000, the better calibration of the model).

If a 50% (0.500) probability were assigned to each team for each game, the Brier score would be 0.250.

Through the championship playoffs, the Elo model has a Brier score of 0.207 and the Cortana model has a Brier score of 0.213.

Brier Scores
2014 NFL Season Summary 538 Elo Cortana
Week 1 0.212 0.222
Week 2 0.256 0.258
Week 3 0.187 0.209
Week 4 0.242 0.288
Week 5 0.149 0.145
Week 6 0.194 0.194
Week 7 0.211 0.200
Week 8 0.217 0.197
Week 9 0.199 0.201
Week 10 0.189 0.192
Week 11 0.260 0.287
Week 12 0.167 0.167
Week 13 0.218 0.218
Week 14 0.218 0.237
Week 15 0.155 0.150
Week 16 0.257 0.258
Week 17 0.208 0.208
Wild Card Weekend 0.225 0.233
Divisional Round 0.194 0.202
Championship Sunday 0.088 0.179
Season totals 0.207 0.213

To date, the Elo model has performed about 17% better than assigning all teams a 50% win probability and the Cortana model has performed about 15% better than assigning all teams a 50% win probability. The Brier scores for the season reflect that the average win probabilities among winning teams are 58% for the Elo model and 57% for the Cortana model.

On a weekly basis, the models have failed to perform better than assigning each team a 50% win probability seventeen out of twenty weeks.

In the championship round, the Elo model had a Brier score of 0.088 and the Cortana model had a Brier score of 0.179.

Details for each game are here.

 


 

Why doesn't most advertising work? Take a look at 10 Rules for More Effective Advertising.

 

American Research Group, Inc.  814 Elm Street  Manchester, NH 03101  603/624-4081
© 2015 American Research Group, Inc. All rights reserved. Reproduction in whole or in part without permission is prohibited.