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October 28, 2014

2014 NFL Prediction Accuracy

 

Microsoft's Cortana and Nate Silver's fivethirtyeight.com Elo are predicting the outcomes of NFL games each week during the 2014 season.

The tables below use Brier scores to determine the accuracy of the probabilistic predictions from both models.

Brier scores range from 0 to 1, with 0 meaning the probabilities in the models perfectly match the outcomes of the games and 1 meaning no matches were made (so the closer to 0.000, the better calibration of the model).

If a 50% (0.500) probability were assigned to each team for each game, the Brier score would be 0.250.

Through the eighth week of the season, the Elo model has a Brier score of 0.209 and the Cortana model has a Brier score of 0.213.

Brier Scores
2014 NFL Season Summary 538 Elo Cortana
Week 1 0.212 0.222
Week 2 0.256 0.258
Week 3 0.187 0.209
Week 4 0.242 0.288
Week 5 0.149 0.145
Week 6 0.194 0.194
Week 7 0.211 0.200
Week 8 0.217 0.197
Season totals 0.209 0.213

In week 8 of the season, the Elo model had a Brier score of 0.217 and the Cortana model had a Brier score of 0.197.

The 95% confidence intervals for both models for week 8 include 0.250, making this the seventh week that both models did no better or worse than assigning each team a 50% win probability. Week 5 has been the only week where the models performed better than assigning each team a 50% win probability.

Details for each game are here.

 


 

October 23, 2014

The New Hampshire Poll

US Senate and Gubernatorial Ballots

 

Jeanne Shaheen leads Scott Brown 49% to 48%, with 3% undecided, in the race for US Senate in New Hampshire. Results from the survey conducted October 19-22 can be found here.

Maggie Hassan leads Walt Havenstein 53% to 43%, with 4% undecided, in the race for governor of New Hampshire. Results from the survey conducted October 19-22 can be found here.

 


 

October 21, 2014

Obama Job Approvals and the National Economy

 

Obama Job Approval Ratings
10/20/14 Approve Disapprove Undecided
Overall 43% 52% 5%
Economy 41% 55% 4%

A total of 43% of Americans say they approve of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president and 52% say they disapprove of the way Obama is handling his job. In September, 42% of Americans approved of the job Obama was doing and 50% disapproved.

When it comes to Obama's handling of the economy, 41% of Americans approve and 55% disapprove. In September, 39% approved and 56% disapproved.

Among Americans registered to vote, 44% approve of the way Obama is handling his job as president and 51% disapprove. On Obama's handling of the economy, 42% of registered voters approve and 54% disapprove.

Details from the nationwide survey conducted October 17-20 are available at The National Economy.

 


 

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