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April 8, 2014

2014 NCAA Men's Division 1 Basketball Tournament Prediction Accuracy


Nate Silver's relaunch of includes predictions for the 2014 NCAA Men's Division 1 basketball tournament. Nate's model provides the odds of each team advancing in the tournament and is updated after each game.

We use Brier scores to determine the accuracy of the probabilistic predictions in Nate's model.

How did Nate's model perform?

Through the 67 games played in the tournament, Nate's model has a Brier score of 0.2096.

Assigning each team a 50% probability of winning would produce a Brier score of 0.25. Nate's model performed 8% better than assigning each team a 50% win probability, making it a low-skill model for the tournament.

Details of what that means and results for all 67 games are here.



March 21, 2014

Obama Job Approvals and the National Economy


Obama Job Approval Ratings
3/20/14 Approve Disapprove Undecided
Overall 47% 51% 2%
Economy 43% 54% 3%

A total of 47% of Americans say they approve of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president and 51% say they disapprove of the way Obama is handling his job. In February, 46% of Americans approved of the job Obama was doing and 50% disapproved.

When it comes to Obama's handling of the economy, 43% of Americans approve and 54% disapprove. In February, 41% approved and 53% disapproved.

Among Americans registered to vote, 47% approve of the way Obama is handling his job as president and 51% disapprove. On Obama's handling of the economy, 46% of registered voters approve and 51% disapprove.

Details from the nationwide survey conducted March 17-20 are available at The National Economy.



March 17, 2014

The New Hampshire Poll

Hassan and Obama Job Approvals in NH


Hassan Job Approval Ratings
3/16/2014 Approve Disapprove Undecided
Overall 37% 25% 38%
Economy 35% 31% 34%


Obama Job Approval Ratings in NH
3/16/2014 Approve Disapprove Undecided
Overall 31% 56% 13%
Economy 34% 56% 10%

Results from the March 2014 Quarterly New Hampshire Poll are now available. NH residents rate NH business conditions, their personal finances, Maggie Hassan, and Barack Obama. Also included are results for a 2014 US Senate ballot between Jeanne Shaheen and Scott Brown and a 2014 NH Gubernatorial ballot between Maggie Hassan and Andrew Hemingway.



March 12, 2014

Pollster Ratings -
2014 Florida D-13 US Representative Special Election


The following table lists the accuracy of pollsters in the March 11, 2014 Florida District 13 US Representative special election using the measure of polling accuracy proposed by Martin, Traugott, and Kennedy.

An accuracy measure of 0.00 indicates that the odds ratio of the survey results matches the odds ratio of the actual results (the closer to 0.00, the better).


2014 Florida D-13 US Rep Special Election
Jolly Sink Odds
RRH/PMI 46% 44% 1.00 0.00 
Fabrizio 44% 42% 1.01 0.01 46% 46% 0.96 -0.04 
McLaughlin 43% 38% 1.09 0.08 
PPP 45% 48% 0.90 -0.10 
DCCC 45% 49% 0.88 -0.13 
Braun/Tampa Bay Times/Bay News 9/
35% 42% 0.80 -0.22*
Saint Leo University 37% 46% 0.77 -0.26*
Actual 48.5% 46.6%

There are no differences between pollsters at the 95% confidence interval.

Only three surveys (Red Racing Horses, Fabrizio, and McLaughlin) predicted Jolly as the winner.

* The accuracy measures for the Braun/Tampa Bay Times/Bay News 9/WUSF survey and the Saint Leo University survey fall outside the 95% confidence intervals.




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