October 21, 2014
Obama Job Approvals and the National Economy
|Obama Job Approval Ratings
A total of 43% of Americans say they approve of the way Barack
Obama is handling
job as president and 52% say they disapprove of the way Obama is handling his job.
In September, 42% of Americans approved
of the job Obama was doing and 50% disapproved.
When it comes to Obama's handling
of the economy, 41% of Americans approve and 55% disapprove.
In September, 39% approved and 56% disapproved.
Among Americans registered to
44% approve of the way Obama is handling his job
as president and 51% disapprove. On Obama's handling of the economy, 42% of registered
approve and 54% disapprove.
Details from the nationwide survey conducted October
17-20 are available at The National
October 21, 2014
2014 NFL Prediction Accuracy
and Nate Silver's fivethirtyeight.com Elo
are predicting the outcomes of NFL games each week during the
tables below use Brier
scores to determine the accuracy of the probabilistic
predictions from both models.
Brier scores range from 0 to 1, with 0 meaning the probabilities
in the models perfectly match
the outcomes of the games and 1 meaning no matches were made
(so the closer to 0.000, the better
calibration of the model).
If a 50% (0.500) probability were
assigned to each team for each game, the
Brier score would be 0.250.
Through the seventh week of the
season, the Elo model has a Brier score of 0.207 and the Cortana
model has a Brier score of
|2014 NFL Season Summary
For the season through
the Elo model is performing about 17% better than assigning
all teams a 50% win probability
and the Cortana model is performing about 14% better than assigning
all teams a 50% win probability. The Brier scores for the season
reflect that the average win
probability among winning teams is 57% for the Elo model and
56% for the Cortana model.
In week seven, both models continued slip
back from their best performance of the season to date in week
Details for each game are here.
September 30, 2014
The New Hampshire Poll
US Senate and Gubernatorial Ballots
Jeanne Shaheen leads Scott Brown 53% to 43%, with 4% undecided, in the race for US Senate in New Hampshire. Results from the survey conducted September 27-29 can be found here.
Maggie Hassan leads Walt Havenstein 55% to 40%, with 5% undecided, in the race for governor of New Hampshire. Results from the survey conducted September 27-29 can be found here.
September 19, 2014
2014 Scotland Independence Referendum Pollster Accuracy
The following table lists the accuracy of pollsters in the September 18, 2014 Scotland
using the measure of polling accuracy proposed by Martin, Traugott, and Kennedy.
An accuracy measure of 0.00 indicates that the odds ratio of the survey results matches
the odds ratio of the actual results (the closer to 0.00, the better).
|2014 Scotland Independence Referendum
There are no differences between pollsters at the
95% confidence interval.
*The accuracy measures for the
You-Gov survey and the TNS-BMRB survey fall outside the 95%
confidence intervals. The You-Gov
survey had a total of 3,237 interviews.
The absolute average accuracy for all seven
As a comparison, the absolute average accuracy
for polling in the
2008 US presidential
election was 0.037 and was 0.055 in the 2012
US presidential election.
September 16, 2014
The New Hampshire Poll
Hassan and Obama Job
Approval in New Hampshire
Approval Ratings in NH
from the September 2014 Quarterly New Hampshire Poll are now
NH residents rate NH business conditions,
their personal finances, Maggie
Hassan, and Barack Obama.
Also included are results for an updated 2014
US Senate ballot between Jeanne Shaheen and Scott Brown
and a 2014 NH Gubernatorial ballot between Maggie Hassan and Walt Havenstein.
September 8, 2014
South Carolina Gubernatorial Election
Nikki Haley leads Vincent Sheheen 43% to 33%, with 18% for Tom Ervin in a survey of likely voters in South Carolina.
Details of the survey, conducted September 2-4, 2014, can be found here.
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