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May 16, 2012

Pollster Ratings

Nebraska Republican US Senate Primary

 

The following table lists the accuracy of pollsters in the May 15, 2012 Nebraska Republican US Senate primary using the measure of polling accuracy proposed by Martin, Traugott, and Kennedy.

An accuracy measure of 0.00 indicates that the odds ratio of the survey results matches the odds ratio of the actual results (the closer to 0.00, the better).

 

2012 NE Republican US Senate Primary
Fischer Bruning Odds
Ratio
Accuracy
We Ask America 39% 34% 1.00 0.00 
Wenzel Strategies 35% 38% 0.80 -0.22 
Actual 41.1% 35.9%

The accuracy measures do not differ at the 95% confidence intervals.

The Wenzel Strategies poll missed the order of finish.

Both polls were conducted on May 14, 2012.

 


 

May 10, 2012

Pollster Ratings

Indiana Republican US Senate Primary

The following table lists the accuracy of pollsters in the May 8, 2012 Indiana Republican US Senate primary using the measure of polling accuracy proposed by Martin, Traugott, and Kennedy.

An accuracy measure of 0.00 indicates that the odds ratio of the survey results matches the odds ratio of the actual results (the closer to 0.00, the better).

 

2012 IN Republican US Senate Primary
Mourdock Lugar Odds
Ratio
Accuracy
Bellwether/
Garin-Hart-Yang
48% 38% 0.81 -0.21*
Wenzel Strategies 44% 39% 0.72 -0.33*
Magellan Strategies 42% 44% 0.61 -0.49*
Actual 61.0% 39.0%

 

The accuracy measures do not differ at the 95% confidence intervals.

*The accuracy measures for all 3 polls fall outside the 95% confidence interval.

The Magellan Strategies poll missed the order of finish.

 

North Carolina Constitutional Amendment

The following table lists the accuracy of pollsters in the May 8, 2012 election for the North Carolina Constitutional Amendment on marriage using the measure of polling accuracy proposed by Martin, Traugott, and Kennedy.  

NC Constitutional Amendment
For Against Odds
Ratio
Accuracy
PPP 55% 39% 0.09 -0.10
Actual 61% 39%

 

The accuracy measure for the Public Policy Polling survey falls within the 95% confidence interval.

 

Wisconsin Democratic Gubernatorial Recall Primary

The following table lists the accuracy of pollsters in the May 8, 2012 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial recall primary using the measure of polling accuracy proposed by Martin, Traugott, and Kennedy.

2012 WS Dem Gov Recall Primary
Barrett Falk Odds
Ratio
Accuracy
Marquette 38% 21% 1.06 0.06 
Actual 58.2% 34.2%

 

The accuracy measure for the Marquette Law School survey falls within the 95% confidence interval.

 

President of France

The following table lists the accuracy of pollsters in the May 6, 2102 election for president of France using the measure of polling accuracy proposed by Martin, Traugott, and Kennedy.

2012 President of France
Hollande Sarkozy Odds
Ratio
Accuracy
Ifop 52% 48% 1.02 0.02 
BVA 52.5% 47.5% 1.04 0.04 
OpinionWay 52.5% 47.5% 1.04 0.04 
Ipsos 52.5% 47.5% 1.04 0.04 
LH2 53% 47% 1.06 0.06 
Harris Interactive 53% 47% 1.06 0.06 
CSA 53% 47% 1.06 0.06 
TNS-sofres 53.5% 46.5% 1.08 0.08 
Actual 51.6% 48.4%

 

There are no differences in the accuracy measures for all of the polls at the 95% confidence interval.

The average absolute accuracy of the 8 pre-election polls in France is 0.05.

In the 2008 US presidential election, the average absolute accuracy of 20 pre-election polls was 0.03.

 


 

April 23, 2012

Obama Job Approvals and the National Economy

 

Obama Job Approval Ratings
4/20/12 Approve Disapprove Undecided
Overall 49% 46% 5%
Economy 47% 49% 4%

A total of 49% of Americans say they approve of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president and 46% say they disapprove of the way Obama is handling his job according to the latest survey from the American Research Group. In March, 48% of Americans approved of the job Obama was doing and 46% disapproved.

When it comes to Obama's handling of the economy, 47% of Americans approve and 49% disapprove. In March, 44% approved and 50% disapproved.

Among Americans registered to vote, 48% approve of the way Obama is handling his job as president and 47% disapprove. On Obama's handling of the economy, 47% of registered voters approve and 50% disapprove.

Details from the nationwide survey conducted April 17-20 are available at The National Economy.

 


 

April 4, 2012

2012 Republican Primary Pollster Ratings

 

The following table indicates the average absolute accuracy for Republican presidential primary and caucus polls in at least four states through April 3, 2012 using the measure of polling accuracy proposed by Martin, Traugott, and Kennedy.

The number of states/polls follows the pollster in parentheses. The closer the accuracy measure is to 0.00, the better.

2012 Republican
Primary/Caucus Polls
Average
Accuracy
We Ask America (9) 0.16
ARG (14) 0.19
PPP (20) 0.19
Rasmussen (16) 0.19
Suffolk (4) 0.21
Average of 129 polls 0.23
Insider Advantage (4) 0.24
NBC/Marist (9) 0.26
YouGov (6) 0.30
CNN (6) 0.32

The average absolute accuracy for 129 Republican primary and caucus polls conducted through April 3 is 0.23.

Details for the April 3 primaries can be found at: Maryland and Wisconsin.

 


 

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The margins of error reported for most polls underestimate the actual margins of error for ballot estimates from the same samples. Use the Ballot Lead Calculator to determine if the lead for any survey is statistically significant.

 

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