|
2010 Primary Pollster
Ratings
Here are the pollster scorecard results
for
the Colorado, Connecticut, California, Florida, Delaware, and
New Hampshire primaries using the measure of polling accuracy
proposed
by Martin, Traugott, and Kennedy.
Colorado Primary Pollster Scorecard Democratic US Senate
|
Bennet |
Romanoff |
Odds
Ratio |
Accuracy |
| PPP |
49% |
43% |
0.96 |
-0.04 |
| Harstad |
41% |
37% |
0.93 |
-0.07 |
| Zata3 |
44% |
40% |
0.93 |
-0.08 |
| SUSA |
45% |
48% |
0.79 |
-0.24 |
| Actual |
54.2% |
45.7% |
|
|
Republican US Senate
|
Buck |
Norton |
Odds
Ratio |
Accuracy |
| PPP |
43% |
45% |
0.90 |
-0.11 |
| SUSA |
50% |
41% |
1.15 |
0.14 |
| Actual |
51.5% |
48.4% |
|
|
Republican Governor
|
Maes |
McInnis |
Odds
Ratio |
Accuracy |
| PPP |
40% |
41% |
0.95 |
-0.05 |
| SUSA |
43% |
39% |
1.07 |
0.07 |
| Actual |
50.6% |
49.3% |
|
|
The accuracy measure for the SurveyUSA Democratic
US Senate poll (-0.24, with a standard error of 0.093) falls
outside the 95% confidence interval,
showing a bias toward Romanoff. Update: In 2008, Public Policy Polling (PPP)
had an average accuracy score of 0.018 for 30 state polls and
SurveyUSA (SUSA) had an average
accuracy score of 0.017 for 49 state polls (Table
3).
Connecticut Primary Pollster
Scorecard Democratic Governor
|
Lamont |
Malloy |
Odds
Ratio |
Accuracy |
| Quinnipiac |
45% |
42% |
1.42 |
0.35 |
| Actual |
43.0% |
57.0% |
|
|
Republican US Senate
|
McMahon |
Simmons |
Odds
Ratio |
Accuracy |
| Quinnipiac |
50% |
28% |
1.01 |
0.01 |
| Actual |
49.4% |
27.9% |
|
|
Republican Governor
|
Fedele |
Foley |
Odds
Ratio |
Accuracy |
| Quinnipiac |
30% |
38% |
1.17 |
0.16 |
| Actual |
39.1% |
42.3% |
|
|
The accuracy measure for the Quinnipiac Democratic Governor poll (0.35,
with a standard error of 0.107) falls
outside the 95% confidence interval,
showing a bias toward Lamont.
California Republican US Senate Primary Pollster
Scorecard Here are the pollster scorecard results for
the California Republican US Senate primary using the measure
of polling accuracy
proposed
by Martin, Traugott, and Kennedy. Republican US Senate
|
Campbell |
Fiorina |
Odds
Ratio |
Accuracy |
| Magellan |
19% |
54% |
0.92 |
-0.08 |
| SUSA |
22% |
48% |
1.20 |
0.18 |
| PPP |
21% |
41% |
1.34 |
0.29 |
| Field |
22% |
37% |
1.55 |
0.44 |
| USC/LATimes |
23% |
38% |
1.58 |
0.46 |
| DailyKos/R2K |
37% |
22% |
4.39 |
1.48 |
| Actual |
21.6% |
56.4% |
|
|
The accuracy measures for the Field poll (0.44,
with a standard error of 0.155), the USC/LATimes poll (0.46,
with a standard error of 0.148), and the DailyKos/Research
2000 poll (1.48, with standard
error of 0.175) fall
outside the 95% confidence interval,
showing biases toward Campbell.
Florida Primary Pollster
Scorecard Democratic US Senate
|
Greene |
Meek |
Odds
Ratio |
Accuracy |
| PPP |
27% |
51% |
0.98 |
-0.02 |
| Susquehanna |
30% |
45% |
1.24 |
0.21 |
| Mason-Dixon |
30% |
42% |
1.32 |
0.28 |
| Quinnipiac |
29% |
39% |
1.38 |
0.32 |
| Feldman |
30% |
38% |
1.46 |
0.38 |
| Ipsos |
40% |
32% |
2.32 |
0.84 |
| Actual |
31.04% |
57.56% |
|
|
The accuracy measures for the Susquehanna poll (0.21,
with a standard error of 0.086), the Mason-Dixon poll (0.28,
with a standard error of 0.126), the Quinnipiac poll (0.32,
with a standard error of 0.108), the Feldman poll (0.38, with
a standard error of 0.105), and
the Ipsos poll (0.84, with standard
error of 0.182) fall
outside the 95% confidence interval,
showing biases toward Greene. Republican Governor
|
McCollum |
Scott |
Odds
Ratio |
Accuracy |
| Susquehanna |
42% |
44% |
1.02 |
0.02 |
| PPP |
40% |
47% |
0.91 |
-0.10 |
| Tarrance |
44% |
40% |
1.17 |
0.16 |
| Quinnipiac |
39% |
35% |
1.19 |
0.17 |
| Ipsos |
34% |
45% |
0.81 |
-0.22 |
| Mason-Dixon |
45% |
36% |
1.33 |
0.29 |
| McLaughlin |
45% |
33% |
1.46 |
0.38 |
| Actual |
43.47% |
46.40% |
|
|
The accuracy measures for the Tarrance poll (0.16,
with a standard error of 0.079), the Mason-Dixon poll (0.29,
with a standard error of 0.111), and
the McLaughlin poll (0.38, with standard
error of 0.106) fall
outside the 95% confidence interval,
showing biases toward McCollum.
Delaware Primary
Pollster
Scorecard Republican US Senate
|
Castle |
O'Donnell |
Odds
Ratio |
Accuracy |
| PPP |
44% |
47% |
1.06 |
0.06 |
| Actual |
46.9% |
53.1% |
|
|
New Hampshire Primary
Pollster
Scorecard Republican US Senate
|
Ayotte |
Lamontagne |
Odds
Ratio |
Accuracy |
| Magellan |
34.8% |
31.4% |
1.07 |
0.07 |
| PPP |
37% |
30% |
1.19 |
0.18 |
| Actual |
38.2% |
37.0% |
|
|
The accuracy measure for the PPP poll (0.18,
with a standard error of 0.089) falls
outside the 95% confidence interval,
showing a bias toward Ayotte. Republican Governor
|
Kimball |
Stephen |
Odds
Ratio |
Accuracy |
| PPP |
24% |
45% |
1.31 |
0.27 |
| Actual |
25.1% |
61.5% |
|
|
The accuracy measure for the PPP poll (0.27,
with a standard error of 0.09) falls
outside the 95% confidence interval,
showing a bias toward Kimball.
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