December 18, 2003
Dean Holds Lead
As Kerry Fights Back for Second Place
Among
Democrats in New Hampshire
While a barrage of negative attacks
on
former Vermont Governor Howard Dean has increased his unfavorable
rating from 7% to 19% in two weeks, the attacks have not had any impact on Dean's favorability
(72%) and his lead in ballot
preference
among likely Democratic primary
voters
in
the New Hampshire Democratic Presidential
Preference Primary according to the latest New Hampshire Poll.
In ballot preference, Dean continues to lead with 45%.
Senator
John Kerry has regained sole possession of second place in
ballot preference with 20% of the vote.
Wesley Clark, suffering from confusing and poorly-rated television
advertising, and Joe Lieberman are now in a battle for a distant third place showing. Lieberman's
attacks on Dean have not reduced Dean's favorability or ballot preference and while Dean's
unfavorable rating has increased 12 percentage points since the last survey, Lieberman's unfavorable
rating remains at 40%. These
results
are based on 600 completed telephone interviews among a random
sample of registered Democrats and undeclared voters in New
Hampshire saying they will definitely vote in the Democratic
primary on January 27. This sample includes
426 Democrats (71%) and 174 undeclared voters (29%). The interviews
were conducted December 15 through 17, 2003. The
theoretical
margin of error for the total
sample of 600 is
plus or minus 4 percentage points, 95% of the time, on questions
where opinion is evenly split.
| Ballot
Preference - July 2003 through December 17, 2003
|
Likely Democratic
primary voters |
Dec 17 2003
| Dec 3
2003 |
Nov 20
2003 |
Nov 5
2003 |
Oct
2003 |
Sep
2003 |
Aug
2003 |
July
2003 |
|
| Carol Moseley Braun |
0% | 0%
| 1%
| 1%
| 1%
| 1%
|
0%
|
1%
|
| Wesley Clark |
8% | 11%
| 7%
| 4%
| 5%
| 2%
|
1%
|
2%
|
| Howard Dean |
45% | 45%
| 38%
| 38%
| 29% | 31% |
28% |
19%
|
| John Edwards |
2% | 3%
| 4%
| 4%
| 3%
| 2%
|
2%
|
2%
|
| Dick Gephardt |
3% | 5%
| 4%
| 3%
| 6%
| 8%
|
10% |
10%
|
| John Kerry |
20% | 13%
| 17%
| 24%
| 19% | 21% |
21% |
25%
|
| Dennis Kucinich |
1% | 2%
| 3%
| 1%
| 1%
| 1%
|
0%
|
1%
|
| Joe Lieberman |
6% | 5%
| 5%
| 4%
| 6%
| 5%
|
4%
|
6%
|
| Al Sharpton |
0% | 1%
| 0%
| 0%
| 0%
| 0%
|
0%
|
1%
|
| Undecided |
15% | 15%
| 21%
| 21%
| 29% | 27% |
32% |
30%
|
| Ballot Preference - January 2003 through June 2003
|
Likely Democratic
primary voters |
June
2003 |
May
2003
| April
2003
| Mar
2003 | Feb
2003 |
Jan
2003 |
|
| Carol Moseley Braun |
1%
| 1%
| 1%
| 1%
| 1% |
NI |
| Wesley Clark |
1%
| 2%
| 2%
| 0%
| 1% |
1% |
| Howard Dean |
18%
| 19%
| 19%
| 22%
| 16% |
15% |
| John Edwards |
4%
| 3%
| 2%
| 3%
| 3% |
4% |
| Dick Gephardt |
10%
| 12%
| 15%
| 15%
| 15% |
5% |
| Bob Graham |
2%
| 3%
| 1%
| 1%
| 1% |
1% |
| John Kerry |
28%
| 26%
| 24%
| 23%
| 23% |
27% |
| Dennis Kucinich |
1%
| 1%
| 1%
| 0%
| 1% |
NI |
| Joe Lieberman |
11%
| 12%
| 13%
| 12%
| 10% |
6% |
| Al Sharpton |
1%
| 1%
| 0%
| 0%
| 0% |
0% |
| Undecided |
23%
| 20%
| 19%
| 20%
| 27% |
39% |
| NI = Not included |
Dean continues
to lead in favorability and the 12 percentage-point increase
in his unfavorable rating has not had any impact on his ballot preference.
Dennis Kucinich's dating stunt hurt his favorability
more than it helped. Kucinich's favorability has increased 6 percentage points, but his unfavorable
rating has increased 11 percentage points as some respondents report they believe that Kucinich's
actions were not presidential.
Awareness and
favorability |
Aware |
Favorable |
Unfavorable |
Undecided |
|
| Carol Moseley Braun: |
|
|
|
|
| Dec 18 2003 |
68% |
24% |
14% |
30% |
| Dec 3 2003 |
65% |
21% |
15% |
29% |
| Nov 20 2003 |
62% |
18% |
17% |
27% |
| Nov 5 2003 |
61% |
19% |
15% |
27% |
| Oct 2003 |
59% |
17% |
10% |
32% |
| Sep 2003 |
60% |
23% |
15% |
22% |
| Aug 2003 |
60% |
19% |
16% |
25% |
| July 2003 |
58% |
11% |
13% |
34% |
| June 2003 |
57% |
17% |
17% |
23% |
| May 2003 |
53% |
15% |
13% |
25% |
| Apr 2003 |
53% |
15% |
17% |
21% |
| Mar 2003 |
58% |
16% |
13% |
29% |
| Feb 2003 |
60% |
20% |
10% |
30% |
|
| Wesley Clark: |
|
|
|
|
| Dec 18 2003 |
98% |
49% |
16% |
33% |
| Dec 3 2003 |
96% |
43% |
12% |
41% |
| Nov 20 2003 |
95% |
44% |
13% |
38% |
| Nov 5 2003 |
89% |
38% |
16% |
35% |
| Oct 2003 |
90% |
34% |
10% |
46% |
| Sep 2003 |
70% |
22% |
5% |
43% |
| Aug 2003 |
47% |
16% |
8% |
23% |
| July 2003 |
39% |
16% |
2% |
21% |
| June 2003 |
46% |
13% |
2% |
31% |
| May 2003 |
39% |
13% |
2% |
24% |
| Apr 2003 |
33% |
14% |
4% |
15% |
| Mar 2003 |
30% |
10% |
2% |
18% |
| Feb 2003 |
27% |
6% |
4% |
17% |
| Jan 2003 |
14% |
2% |
0% |
12% |
| Nov 2002 |
11% |
1% |
0% |
10% |
|
| Howard Dean: |
|
|
|
|
| Dec 18 2003 |
100% |
72% |
19% |
9% |
| Dec 3 2003 |
99% |
69% |
7% |
23% |
| Nov 20 2003 |
100% |
71% |
11% |
18% |
| Nov 5 2003 |
100% |
67% |
8% |
25% |
| Oct 2003 |
98% |
63% |
12% |
23% |
| Sep 2003 |
99% |
66% |
9% |
24% |
| Aug 2003 |
98% |
63% |
7% |
28% |
| July 2003 |
97% |
57% |
10% |
30% |
| June 2003 |
85% |
46% |
9% |
30% |
| May 2003 |
81% |
45% |
11% |
25% |
| Apr 2003 |
75% |
43% |
10% |
22% |
| Mar 2003 |
74% |
40% |
9% |
25% |
| Feb 2003 |
75% |
33% |
12% |
29% |
| Jan 2003 |
64% |
30% |
4% |
30% |
| Nov 2002 |
45% |
29% |
2% |
14% |
|
| John Edwards: |
|
|
|
|
| Dec 18 2003 |
95% |
45% |
16% |
34% |
| Dec 3 2003 |
94% |
42% |
18% |
34% |
| Nov 20 2003 |
92% |
36% |
17% |
39% |
| Nov 5 2003 |
93% |
33% |
18% |
42% |
| Oct 2003 |
85% |
32% |
17% |
36% |
| Sep 2003 |
83% |
30% |
12% |
41% |
| Aug 2003 |
86% |
25% |
16% |
45% |
| July 2003 |
75% |
25% |
15% |
35% |
| June 2003 |
70% |
24% |
8% |
38% |
| May 2003 |
65% |
21% |
7% |
37% |
| Apr 2003 |
64% |
18% |
9% |
37% |
| Mar 2003 |
64% |
19% |
8% |
37% |
| Feb 2003 |
58% |
17% |
5% |
36% |
| Jan 2003 |
59% |
24% |
4% |
31% |
| Nov 2002 |
20% |
5% |
4% |
11% |
|
| Dick Gephardt: |
|
|
|
|
| Dec 18 2003 |
100% |
53% |
21% |
26% |
| Dec 3 2003 |
100% |
51% |
22% |
27% |
| Nov 20 2003 |
100% |
50% |
20% |
30% |
| Nov 5 2003 |
100% |
52% |
22% |
26% |
| Oct 2003 |
100% |
49% |
19% |
32% |
| Sep 2003 |
100% |
50% |
18% |
32% |
| Aug 2003 |
100% |
47% |
16% |
37% |
| July 2003 |
100% |
51% |
19% |
30% |
| June 2003 |
98% |
55% |
14% |
29% |
| May 2003 |
97% |
50% |
16% |
31% |
| Apr 2003 |
97% |
53% |
16% |
28% |
| Mar 2003 |
100% |
50% |
19% |
31% |
| Feb 2003 |
98% |
49% |
21% |
28% |
| Jan 2003 |
97% |
54% |
20% |
23% |
| Nov 2002 |
92% |
35% |
22% |
35% |
|
| John Kerry: |
|
|
|
|
| Dec 18 2003 |
98% |
51% |
23% |
24% |
| Dec 3 2003 |
97% |
57% |
18% |
22% |
| Nov 20 2003 |
99% |
61% |
19% |
19% |
| Nov 5 2003 |
96% |
66% |
12% |
18% |
| Oct 2003 |
96% |
63% |
14% |
19% |
| Sep 2003 |
98% |
64% |
13% |
21% |
| Aug 2003 |
98% |
61% |
5% |
32% |
| July 2003 |
100% |
66% |
13% |
21% |
| June 2003 |
92% |
69% |
10% |
13% |
| May 2003 |
92% |
65% |
11% |
16% |
| Apr 2003 |
87% |
65% |
10% |
12% |
| Mar 2003 |
90% |
69% |
7% |
14% |
| Feb 2003 |
87% |
61% |
8% |
18% |
| Jan 2003 |
91% |
61% |
5% |
25% |
| Nov 2002 |
80% |
44% |
7% |
29% |
|
| Dennis Kucinich: |
|
|
|
|
| Dec 18 2003 |
71% |
29% |
28% |
14% |
| Dec 3 2003 |
70% |
23% |
17% |
30% |
| Nov 20 2003 |
68% |
20% |
18% |
30% |
| Nov 5 2003 |
63% |
18% |
14% |
31% |
| Oct 2003 |
58% |
17% |
12% |
29% |
| Sep 2003 |
60% |
12% |
18% |
30% |
| Aug 2003 |
61% |
18% |
19% |
24% |
| July 2003 |
56% |
11% |
16% |
29% |
| June 2003 |
46% |
13% |
6% |
27% |
| May 2003 |
24% |
6% |
7% |
11% |
| Apr 2003 |
32% |
8% |
9% |
15% |
| Mar 2003 |
21% |
6% |
9% |
6% |
| Feb 2003 |
13% |
2% |
4% |
7% |
|
| Joe Lieberman: |
|
|
|
|
| Dec 18 2003 |
100% |
44% |
40% |
16% |
| Dec 3 2003 |
100% |
43% |
38% |
19% |
| Nov 20 2003 |
100% |
34% |
35% |
31% |
| Nov 5 2003 |
100% |
33% |
38% |
29% |
| Oct 2003 |
100% |
39% |
31% |
30% |
| Sep 2003 |
100% |
33% |
33% |
34% |
| Aug 2003 |
100% |
33% |
37% |
30% |
| July 2003 |
100% |
49% |
18% |
33% |
| June 2003 |
100% |
46% |
20% |
34% |
| May 2003 |
100% |
55% |
16% |
29% |
| Apr 2003 |
100% |
56% |
19% |
25% |
| Mar 2003 |
100% |
51% |
28% |
21% |
| Feb 2003 |
100% |
55% |
23% |
22% |
| Jan 2003 |
100% |
61% |
19% |
20% |
| Nov 2002 |
99% |
42% |
20% |
37% |
|
| Al Sharpton: |
|
|
|
|
| Dec 18 2003 |
91% |
19% |
51% |
21% |
| Dec 3 2003 |
85% |
15% |
46% |
24% |
| Nov 20 2003 |
83% |
11% |
50% |
22% |
| Nov 5 2003 |
85% |
9% |
53% |
23% |
| Oct 2003 |
82% |
12% |
50% |
20% |
| Sep 2003 |
84% |
12% |
59% |
13% |
| Aug 2003 |
80% |
9% |
58% |
13% |
| July 2003 |
79% |
11% |
41% |
27% |
| June 2003 |
79% |
11% |
46% |
22% |
| May 2003 |
79% |
7% |
45% |
27% |
| Apr 2003 |
79% |
10% |
48% |
21% |
| Mar 2003 |
71% |
8% |
43% |
20% |
| Feb 2003 |
76% |
5% |
54% |
17% |
| Jan 2003 |
66% |
5% |
40% |
21% |
| Nov 2002 |
63% |
1% |
33% |
29% |
Of the 15% of likely Democratic
primary voters
undecided in their preference for president, 56% have a favorable
opinion of Dean, 41% have a favorable opinion of Kerry, and
29% have a favorable opinion of Lieberman. Of the 45%
of likely Democratic primary voters saying
they would vote for Dean, 42% have a favorable opinion of Kerry,
53% have a favorable opinion of Lieberman, and 42% have an unfavorable opinion of Lieberman.
Of the 44% of likely Democratic primary voters
saying they have a favorable opinion of Lieberman, 48% say
they would
vote for Dean. Of the 40% saying they have an unfavorable opinion
of Lieberman, 47% say they would vote for Dean.
About this survey:
Survey Sponsor: American Research Group, Inc. The
New Hampshire Poll has been conducting surveys of voters in New Hampshire since
1976. Sample Size: 600 completed telephone interviews among a random sample of
registered Democrats and undeclared voters in New Hampshire
saying they will definitely vote in the Democratic primary
election on January 27. This sample included
426 registered Democrats (71%) and 174 undeclared voters (29%).
Sample
Dates: December 15-17, 2003 Margin of Error: ±
4 percentage points, 95% of the time, on questions where opinion
is evenly split.
Question wording:
I'm going to read a list of names associated
with running for president and I'd like you to tell me if you have ever heard of them before.
The first name is (READ FROM BELOW). Have you
ever heard of (NAME) before? IF AWARE, ASK: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of (NAME)? (NAMES ROTATED) Carol Moseley Braun
Wesley Clark
Howard Dean
John Edwards
Dick Gephardt
John Kerry
Dennis
Kucinich
Joe Lieberman
Al SharptonIf the New Hampshire Democratic
Presidential
Preference Primary were being held today between Carol Moseley
Braun,
Wesley Clark, Howard Dean,
John Edwards, Dick Gephardt, John Kerry,
Dennis Kucinich,
Joe Lieberman, or Al
Sharpton, for whom would you vote? (NAMES ROTATED)
|
