|
2011 Nevada 2d CD
Special Election
Pollster
Ratings The following table
lists the
accuracy of pollsters in the September 13, 2011 special election
for
the Nevada 2d Congressional District using the measure
of polling accuracy
proposed
by Martin, Traugott, and Kennedy.
| NV 2d CD
|
|
Amodei |
Marshall |
Odds
Ratio |
Accuracy |
| Magellan |
48% |
35% |
0.86 |
-0.16 |
| PPP |
50% |
37% |
0.84 |
-0.17 |
| PPP* |
43% |
42% |
0.64 |
-0.45 |
|
| Actual |
57.9% |
36.1% |
|
|
The accuracy measures
for the Magellan and PPP surveys are within the 95% confidence
interval.
The accuracy measure for the PPP* survey falls
outside the 95% confidence interval. This survey was conducted August 18-21, 2011 and the sample dates are comparable to the Magellan survey that was conducted August 15-16, 2011.
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